NHL Projections 2018-19

I have been working on a simple system for projecting goals for forwards and defensemen.

Much like the potato draft, the potato projections are a very simple system modeled after Tom Tango's Marcel the Monkey projections in baseball.

Goals over the last 3 seasons, with the most recent season weighted highest.
Regressed towards the mean based on games played (fewer games = more regression.)
Adjusted for age in upcoming year
Forwards and defense are projected using different weights
No non-NHL data is considered.

What this gives us is a baseline projection system that can be used for doing phase 1 analysis and against which one can evaluate more complicated systems

Here are the 20 players (with ties) in goals:

Rank	Player Name	G	A	P
1	Patrik Laine	45	32	77
2	Auston Matthews	45	39	84
3	Connor McDavid	41	74	115
4	David Pastrnak	39	46	85
5	Brock Boeser	37	32	69
6	Jack Eichel	35	50	85
7	Nikita Kucherov	34	46	80
8	Sebastian Aho	32	37	69
9	Brayden Point	32	35	67
10	Alex Ovechkin	31	26	57
11	Nikolaj Ehlers	31	38	69
12	Nathan MacKinnon	31	48	79
13	Evgeni Malkin	31	41	72
14	Rickard Rakell	30	27	57
15	Tyler Seguin	30	35	65
16	Vladimir Tarasenko	30	29	59
17	Mikko Rantanen	29	46	75
18	Sean Monahan	29	33	62
19	Brad Marchand	29	39	68
20	Anders Lee	29	19	48
21	Taylor Hall	29	41	70
22	Filip Forsberg	29	36	65
23	Kyle Connor	29	28	57