I have been working on a simple system for projecting goals for forwards and defensemen.
Much like the potato draft, the potato projections are a very simple system modeled after Tom Tango's Marcel the Monkey projections in baseball.
- Goals over the last 3 seasons, with the most recent season weighted highest.
- Regressed towards the mean based on games played (fewer games = more regression.)
- Adjusted for age in upcoming year
- Forwards and defense are projected using different weights
- No non-NHL data is considered.
What this gives us is a baseline projection system that can be used for doing phase 1 analysis and against which one can evaluate more complicated systems
Here are the 20 players (with ties) in goals: