I have been working on a simple system for projecting goals for forwards and defensemen.
Much like the potato draft, the potato projections are a very simple system modeled after Tom Tango's Marcel the Monkey projections in baseball.
- Goals over the last 3 seasons, with the most recent season weighted highest.
- Regressed towards the mean based on games played (fewer games = more regression.)
- Adjusted for age in upcoming year
- Forwards and defense are projected using different weights
- No non-NHL data is considered.
What this gives us is a baseline projection system that can be used for doing phase 1 analysis and against which one can evaluate more complicated systems
Here are the 20 players (with ties) in goals:
Rank | Player Name | G | A | P |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Patrik Laine | 45 | 32 | 77 |
2 | Auston Matthews | 45 | 39 | 84 |
3 | Connor McDavid | 41 | 74 | 115 |
4 | David Pastrnak | 39 | 46 | 85 |
5 | Brock Boeser | 37 | 32 | 69 |
6 | Jack Eichel | 35 | 50 | 85 |
7 | Nikita Kucherov | 34 | 46 | 80 |
8 | Sebastian Aho | 32 | 37 | 69 |
9 | Brayden Point | 32 | 35 | 67 |
10 | Alex Ovechkin | 31 | 26 | 57 |
11 | Nikolaj Ehlers | 31 | 38 | 69 |
12 | Nathan MacKinnon | 31 | 48 | 79 |
13 | Evgeni Malkin | 31 | 41 | 72 |
14 | Rickard Rakell | 30 | 27 | 57 |
15 | Tyler Seguin | 30 | 35 | 65 |
16 | Vladimir Tarasenko | 30 | 29 | 59 |
17 | Mikko Rantanen | 29 | 46 | 75 |
18 | Sean Monahan | 29 | 33 | 62 |
19 | Brad Marchand | 29 | 39 | 68 |
20 | Anders Lee | 29 | 19 | 48 |
21 | Taylor Hall | 29 | 41 | 70 |
22 | Filip Forsberg | 29 | 36 | 65 |
23 | Kyle Connor | 29 | 28 | 57 |