NHL Projections 2018-19

I have been working on a simple system for projecting goals for forwards and defensemen.

Much like the potato draft, the potato projections are a very simple system modeled after Tom Tango's Marcel the Monkey projections in baseball.

  1. Goals over the last 3 seasons, with the most recent season weighted highest.
  2. Regressed towards the mean based on games played (fewer games = more regression.)
  3. Adjusted for age in upcoming year
  4. Forwards and defense are projected using different weights
  5. No non-NHL data is considered.

What this gives us is a baseline projection system that can be used for doing phase 1 analysis and against which one can evaluate more complicated systems

Here are the 20 players (with ties) in goals:

RankPlayer NameGAP
1Patrik Laine453277
2Auston Matthews453984
3Connor McDavid4174115
4David Pastrnak394685
5Brock Boeser373269
6Jack Eichel355085
7Nikita Kucherov344680
8Sebastian Aho323769
9Brayden Point323567
10Alex Ovechkin312657
11Nikolaj Ehlers313869
12Nathan MacKinnon314879
13Evgeni Malkin314172
14Rickard Rakell302757
15Tyler Seguin303565
16Vladimir Tarasenko302959
17Mikko Rantanen294675
18Sean Monahan293362
19Brad Marchand293968
20Anders Lee291948
21Taylor Hall294170
22Filip Forsberg293665
23Kyle Connor292857
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